Friday, August 18, 2006

Half Time Oranges ...

The UN force bringing peace to South Lebanon seems to be rapidly unravelling. The French are cooling rapidly. And those countries which do want to send troops may not be totally neutral.

"Israel says it would be "difficult if not inconceivable" to accept nations which do not recognise its right to exist as part of a UN force in Lebanon.
Israeli UN envoy Dan Gillerman was speaking after Indonesia and Malaysia, which do not recognise Israel, pledged troops for the UN deployment.

Malaysia said Israel should have no say in the make-up of the force.

The UN has expressed cautious optimism that it can deploy an initial 3,500-strong force within two weeks. UN deputy chief Mark Malloch Brown warned earlier that delay could threaten the ceasefire.

But building the force has proved problematical.

France, which had agreed to lead the force, said it would send only 200 extra troops immediately, far fewer than expected.

The UN had hoped for a larger European contingent and was disappointed by France's offer. "

The Man In A Shed isn't optimistic.

"I don't think the war is over - this has only been an opening battle. The UN looks like being its ineffective best again. Hezbollah will keep it weapons and use them again. Israeli military planners will therefore already be planning the next battle to win the war.

The UN and Lebanese government just look like providing the half time oranges - not stopping the fight. Their talk of peace making is false - and they know it.

It's not a ceasefire - just a time out to rearm and rethink. Israel at least looks willing to learn lessons fast. They have suffered much more than they thought to guided missile technology used by Hezbollah and provided via Iran. Soon precision guided long range rockets will be in their arsenal with war heads provided by Iran.

How long does anyone think Israel will be able to sit by and watch this build up ? How long before Hezbollah or another group try to attack Israel again ?

The time table to the next war is now set up ... sorry to be so down - but that's how it looks to me this morning."

Looks that way to me too. I see Hezbollah were using Iranian-built Spandrels and Syrian-supplied Russian Kornets, advanced tandem-warhead missiles used to penetrate reactive armour.

This isn't peace. This is an armistice for a few months.

UPDATE - rarely I link to Robert Fisk, but a stopped clock ...

"Fouad Siniora repeated that there would be no more "states within a state" and that the Hizbollah would leave the area south of the Litani. This statement came under the category of "a likely story". Not only do most of the Hizbollah live in villages south of the Litani but several of their officers made it clear that they had told the Lebanese army not to search for weapons. So much for the disarmament of the Hizbollah south of the Litani river"


Anonymous said...

"Malaysia said Israel should have no say in the make-up of the force."

Malaysia needs to re-read the 'UN Peacekeeping for Dummies' handbook. This is a chapter 6 force, the makeup has therefore to be acceptable to both 'sides'.

If they'd wanted Israel not to have a say, then they should have pushed for Chapter 7, but given that a Chapter 7 force would have had the authority to actually DO SOMETHING, that was never going to happen.

Anonymous said...

"This is an armistice for a few months."

I believe the term you are looking for is 'hudna'...