"And what will happen to us?"

One of the reasons comments returned is that I missed the knowledge and inspiration of the commenters, from whom I have learned - and continue to learn - so much. Thank you.

I wrote in my post on Rubery Owen about :

"the infrastructure which is so essential to any hi-tech industry - the network of small, specialist-skill providers which grows organically round the major firms. I'd imagine that in China and Korea there are a host of such small firms servicing the computer industry - the motherboard and memory manufacturers etc. It's impossible to build those sort of skillsets quickly. Take a look at the list of engineering contractors and weep for a lost past - and a bleak future"

and lo - commenter jrackell pointed me to James Dyson's Dimbleby Lecture, containing the following :

"the biggest lesson came four years ago when I located our assembly in Malaysia. Much as I was resisting the change, there were very clear reasons why we had to change direction.

We needed to invest heavily in research and development. But our manufacturing costs were going up and our market place prices were going down. And we were trying to expand our factory in the face of local planning opposition.

Meanwhile all our competitors were manufacturing in China, while we were watching our profits go into freefall. I could see our demise.

But the biggest problem was that we had no local suppliers. Our British three-pin plugs were made in Malaysia. Our polycarbonate plastics came from Korea. Our electronics came from Taiwan. It was a logistical nightmare. We needed our suppliers on our doorstep so that we could drive them to improve their quality and keep pace with technology.

In the 1970s, when I was developing the Ballbarrow, I needed some bent metal tubing. I got in my car and went to Birmingham. In the space of a few streets, I found workshops and suppliers who between them could provide the tubing, cut it, bend it and coat it. It was an extraordinarily vital environment. And it was absolutely essential to the small engineering entrepreneur.

You might ask what happened to these British suppliers and subcontractors? Quite simply: we drove them out of existence. Employment and property laws made it difficult for them to take on extra staff and premises. They needed a tax regime that appreciated the volatile nature of their business. Instead, Governments imposed PAYE and hammered them with high interest rates, year after year. By the mid-1980s, most had gone to the wall."

I rest my case. But there's a lot more in the Dyson lecture.

I'm frequently told that championing manufacturing is yesterday's game. That we live in a post-industrial society. That the service and creative industries have replaced manufacturing.

Well consider this:

Of the world's ten largest corporations by revenue, nine make big, heavy things. Like cars or ships' turbines or computer hardware or consumer electronics. These companies rely on their engineering and their technology – not their styling – for their wealth. Only one – WalMart – is a service company. Look at the most profitable companies and again the facts speak for themselves. In the top ten, only three are service companies. And as for the world's least profitable company? Why it's Vodafone, a service company that made a loss of more than 15 billion dollars last year.

So why does Britain need a manufacturing industry in this supposed age of the service economy?

My answer is simple. We have no choice. Only one in seven British jobs is in manufacturing, yet they generate nearly two-thirds of exports. Manufacturing creates the wealth and spending power that feed the service industry. It's obvious. The rest of the world relies on manufacturing for its wealth. Why do we think we can be different? If we want to maintain our position alongside other leading nations, we've got to join the rest.

We must take steps now. In ten years time China, with its mantra of employment over profit, will not only be the workshop of the world, it will be the technological superpower.

And what will happen to us?

Laban :

"I suppose the theory is that a combination of lethargy and convenience (between time zones) will keep the dosh rolling into the City, even when world manufacturing is centred in Asia.

Just the way that Florence and Antwerp remained the capitals of world banking despite the rise of Britain, the USA and Germany, eh ?

It may take time, but inevitably the services will follow the manufacturing."

Dyson again :

Britain's service industries will wither without their manufacturing customers. Call centres and software developers are already disappearing to efficient service economies. Such as India.

Innovation will be stifled. We will be surrounded by products that we have not made. That's something that is already culturally destructive. Ultimately we will be at the mercy of the buying habits of Chinese shoppers. The impact on the trade deficit will be ruinous.

The loss of manufacturing expertise will compromise our military strength. History repeatedly shows the correlation between a nation's wealth and its diplomatic and military powers. Before the Industrial Revolution, Britain accounted for just one fiftieth of the world's manufacturing output, while China spoke for a third.

Fewer than a hundred years later, China had been invaded by a small British army. Its industry was now backward. Britain, with two per cent of the world's population, was making nearly half the world's goods. And politically we led the world.

Now Laban doesn't want to invade anywhere or dictate to anyone. But it's sensible not to put ourselves in the situation where others can do that to us. At least the current invasion is self-inflicted.

Dyson :

In 1950, we produced a quarter of the world's exports; in 1970, just one tenth. By the mid 1980s our international goods trade was in deficit. Fast forward to today.

We rely on our service industries to prop up our alarming trade deficit. And this sorry situation, is often presented as the conclusive argument, that we have tipped from a manufacturing economy to a service economy.

Time and time again, I'm told Britain can rely on service industries. "It doesn’t matter if we buy all our low-cost goods from abroad," I hear. "We can rely on our service industry to finance it."

For which see my post quoted above. Services will in the end follow the money.

Look at those trade figures. The cultural collapse and the economic collapse ran in tandem. Contrast with Japan or Germany- a lot of flattened buildings in 1945, hi-tech export giants within 30 years.

Dyson :

Since 1997, we have closed 18 physics departments and 28 chemistry departments.
As a result, we now produce only 3,000 physics graduates a year. Compare that to an astonishing 15,000 psychologists !

Makes sense of a sort. We're living in a fool's paradise where mental illness is one of the few growth industries. I bet counselling of all sorts is growing too - drug, alcohol, smoking, eating, "sexual health". But where will the money come from? Can our 3,000 physicists create enough wealth to feed 15,000 trick-cyclists ?

I think not. One of the effects of the global financial crisis IMHO will be a move away from the dollar and sterling, the weakening of US and UK financial institutions, and the start of the decline of London and Wall Street. At some point we may HAVE to start making things again if we want to eat.




(Thanks also to jrackell for this Dyson MIT lecture (video) - fascinating stuff, and to Mark Holland for links to this archive cinema of the Black Country)

Enfants de la Patrie ?

I see that the French National Anthem has been dissed yet again by young Frenchmen of Tunisian heritage at a home soccer international - despite the singer (Grace Jones' little sister in a hoodie) being as street and multiculti as one could wish for.

It follows the dissing of the French National Anthem by young Frenchmen of Moroccan heritage at a home soccer international.

Not to mention the dissing of the French National Anthem by young Frenchmen of Algerian heritage at a home soccer international - such patriots that they invaded the pitch and stopped the game when France went 4-1 up.

There seems to be a problem here. Any native Froggie saying "these guys aren't Frenchmen" would be rightfully denounced by one and all as a hideous racist. Trouble is, the guys whistling the anthem would agree with him.

I don't know. It's not as if the French football team doesn't reflect the faces you see on the streets of Paris (if not of Sourdeval). After the 1998 World Cup they were hailed by the usual suspects as the fair face of multicultural France.

Reading the comments there seem to be a fair few people saying 'you deserve it for massacring x thousand people in 19nn'. I don't know much about France's colonial wars, except that the Algerian one was exceedingly dirty and unpleasant, apparently including torturing to death and dumping in the Seine (plenty of torturing to death on the Algerian side, too). Nonetheless, if there was so much resentment, maybe it was unwise of previous French governments to move so many resentful chaps across the tideless ditch.

Except that ... these aren't (mostly) the chaps who moved. They're the children and grandchildren. The chaps who moved were generally OK. But the interaction of unease, welfare, an increasing cultural vacuum (though not on our scale) and post-colonial guilt have bred people who hate and despise the country they live in.

Sarkozy responded angrily, saying that games would be stopped at once if it happened again. But they're already having second thoughts, having perhaps considered what would happen if they released 50,000 peace-loving and disappointed soccer fans onto the Paris streets without having first got the CRS into position.

Making threats that you can't back up generally doesn't intimidate, but emboldens an opponent.

So what, you may say. Why should we care about what happens in a far-away country of which we know little ?

Because their problems are ours. There's a terrible symmetry between the children and grandchildren of immigrants to France, much more radicalised, violent and discontented than their grandparents, and those to the UK. One can never be sure, but if there were national anthems at cricket matches is it not likely we'd see the same thing at England v Pakistan ?

Agreed !

Timothy Garton Ash - he say "don't decide on historical truth in a court of law".

Among the ways in which freedom is being chipped away in Europe, one of the less obvious is the legislation of memory. More and more countries have laws saying you must remember and describe this or that historical event in a certain way, sometimes on pain of criminal prosecution if you give the wrong answer. What the wrong answer is depends on where you are.

Agreed, agreed, agreed.

My kids are taught in school that Sacco and Vanzetti were innocent (they were guilty).

My council tells me that one woman in four is a victim of domestic violence and that a third of our food is thrown away.

CiF posters tell me that when the BNP vote goes up, racial attacks increase, or that thousands of British women were dying in back-street abortions before 1967.

For years I carried with me the tragic story of poor Hyacinth's lynching, so brilliantly described by Martha Gellhorn in "Justice At Night". She made it up.

An amateur historian, Jerry Brotton, claims that the Ottoman Empire was decisive in defeating the Armada.

All of these things I believe to be untrue. But I don't want people banged up for saying them (although I don't want my taxes to fund their propagation, either). Let us play the light of reason and historical enquiry upon such claims, as a high-pressure hose is turned upon anti-globalisation protesters.

Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend, as a famous mass-murdering dictator once said. Or was he the greatest revolutionary leader of the twentieth century ?

You decide. Not a court.

Oh Dear

BBC

The Audit Commission seeks to ensure that £180bn of public sector spending provides "value for taxpayers". It said it deposited £5m in Landsbanki in April this year - and a further £5m in July in Iceland's Heritable Bank. The commission said the deposits were in "full compliance" with their guidelines "on prudent investment".

Hmm. March 2008, This Is Money. The Audit Commission put their money in in April and July. With one bound they've managed to discredit themselves. This severely damages their right to a respectful hearing when they castigate others for mismanagement.

But the real horrors are in Iceland.

Credit insurance for debts at Iceland's biggest bank, Landsbanki, is priced at 610 points while that for Kaupthing is priced at a hair-raising 856. Given that these two have taken billions in UK retail deposits, it may be a sobering thought for savers to consider where they are putting their cash. These banks are now seen as the most unsafe in the developed world. Of course, no one can be sure that disaster looms for anyone, but the figures on credit default swaps show clearly where investment professionals think the big risks are.

You have been warned.

Rubery Owen

The death of the former "wheels and assemblies" MD, David Lanfear, seems a good time to note the decline and fall of another piece of Brit manufacturing.

Rubery Owen, which not so long ago employed 6,000 people in the heart of the Black Country, are still very much alive - in that post-industrial sense.

The last major manufacturing interest was sold in 1993 and since then the company has focussed its attention on 3 key strands – Property, Investment, and a number of independent operating subsidiaries. Yes, it’s smaller than it used to be in the late ‘60s and early ‘70’s, but it’s still innovating and it’s still active.

As we approach the 125th anniversary of the firms founding, we are investing heavily in our operating companies, and as the world faces different issues – climate change, social responsibility, the internet age etc – we hope that we are doing our bit to contribute, and see real opportunities to be at the forefront of the evolution of a new type of “British Industry” and “Industrial Revolution”.

"A new type of British Industry” denoting absence of same. As commenter Dearieme put it :

My wife made a new friend this year, the wife of a Visiting Scholar at Cambridge, a Chinese. After a few weeks here she had a good question. "I don't understand how this country is so rich", said she, "where are all your factories?"

Still, I'm grateful to the company for recording their history here and here.

The ‘70’s were a difficult period – with the early ‘70’s came fuel crises and fluctuating fortunes particularly due to smaller numbers of cars being produced in the UK at a time when production in both France and Germany was expanding significantly, and though there was the occasional ‘highlight’, by the late 70’s things were difficult again as a result of considerable rationalisation in the UK Aerospace industry and well as the Materials Handling/Forklift Truck sector, allied to the continuing difficulties and disruption in the UK Automotive Industry – The Group was significantly exposed to all of these sectors, and suffered as a result.

In 1981 the Company took the momentous decision to close its main Darlaston factory, with over 6000 jobs having been lost during the course of the previous 5 years, and from that point on the company took the decision that it would pursue a strategy of ‘orderly exit’ from its traditional manufacturing and engineering businesses – successful and growing manufacturing businesses were sold to organisations with access to larger amounts of capital and therefore better placed to drive their growth, whilst other operations were rationalised or even closed.

The story of RO can really be viewed as a microcosm of the change in British Industry between the late ‘60s and early 90’s – for a whole variety of reasons, what the company used to do is no longer done in this country anymore. Our fortunes, as a supplier of components and other assemblies under long term contracts to manufacturers of finished goods, were largely in the hands of others and in many ways our hands were tied. The lessons that we have learnt have been valuable ones, and the fact that we are still here is testament to that! Indeed, many of our contemporaries, business that used to do what we used to do, are no longer around and in many ways the fact that we are still in existence is as much of an achievement as the original growth and expansion of the business.

"Considerable rationalisation in the UK Aerospace industry" meaning goodbye to Blackburn, Handley Page, Bristol, A V Roe, English Electric, de Havilland, Hawker Siddeley, Tom Cobbley and all. Some bits survived in the form of British Aerospace. The adverts are from this wonderful archive of aviation engineering ads, a reminder of the infrastructure which is so essential to any hi-tech industry - the network of small, specialist-skill providers which grows organically round the major firms. I'd imagine that in China and Korea there are a host of such small firms servicing the computer industry - the motherboard and memory manufacturers etc. It's impossible to build those sort of skillsets quickly. Take a look at the list of engineering contractors and weep for a lost past - and a bleak future.



UPDATE - to any aged Midlander, it's like a memorial list. Sankeys of Wellington in Shropshire, later taken over by GKN, Birmal at Smethwick, Terry's in Redditch, where Laban spent a Seventies summer stamping out hose-bands, Jenks and Cattell, Birmetals in Quinton, Wilmot Breeden in Brum.

Good Grief !

I can't see this judge - one James Simpson, a man of undoubted perspicacity and genius - lasting long. This sort of thing could turn our entire justice system upside down.

Mr Mohamed fled persecution in Somalia with his mother and father when he was four and claims to know nothing about the country today.

Since arriving in Britain, he has tried to build a life in north London but took up petty offending to support his drug and alcohol addictions. Mr Mohamed came into contact with law enforcement when he was 12 and later began committing burglaries to buy cannabis and cocaine. His most recent conviction was for an assault on a prison officer, after which the Home Office applied to have him deported to Somalia.

Dismissing his appeal, the immigration tribunal judge said: "His experience [criminal activity] will make him more street wise than someone of a similar age who has led a crime-free and more conventional life. These experiences will place him at a distinct advantage in dealing with the circumstances in Somalia and should make it much easier for him to avoid pitfalls."

There can be little doubt that his presence here is not conducive to the public good. But given that we've handed residence to Afghan hijackers and Iranian Embassy hostage-takers, it's remarkable to find a judge who has, to paraphrase this chap, grown a pair.

That Ten Point Plan

Rising Inflation ? Check.

Rising Unemployment ? Check.

Ethnic division ? Check.

Alienated working class ? Check.

Fearful middle class ? Check.

Savings destroyed ? Check.

Investments collapsed ? Check.

Clueless rulers ? Check.

Right-wing parties on the rise ? Check (well, acording to Jon Cruddas and Mike Ion, anyway. See under "rulers, clueless") .

Anti-Semitism likewise ? Check.

Starts to take on a certain resonance, doesn't it ? If, as some on the far right and far left would have it, those pesky Zionists control everything in their own interests, they're making a pretty poor fist of it - to put it mildly.

Tony Pomeroy - Magistrate From Hell

Don't even think about getting a fair hearing from this idiot if you're a victim. Because he doesn't know a victim when he sees one.

I Heard Somewhere ...

That it's the Anglos, the English-speaking, generally more liberal whites who are voting on the Rainbow Nation with their feet, and that it's the crusty, racist Afrikaners who are staying put.

'Twould be ironic if true. Wouldn't be the first liberals to run for the hills.

I'd forgotten all of Rory Carroll's piece. The Guardian correspondent left SA with a sigh of relief for the States.


"The anxiety about crime, the crunching on racial eggshells, the juxtaposition of first-world materialism with third-world squalor - it all added up."

Let's hope for his sake they don't make him Home Affairs Correspondent !

The Lucky Generation

The Magistrate on the post-war baby-boomers and the contrast with their parents generation. I don't even like to think about the contrasts with our children's generation.

Alum Rock Update

Two arrests, no names.

Two views of the area - from the native Brummies and the young people who live there (aka "ppl dat liv ther")

Gordon Brown - World Leader

As I said - "events, dear boy, events".

Who would have thunk it ? Three weeks ago you couldn't turn on the telly or open a paper without seeing that nice Mr Cameron or the lovely Samantha. It was a close call in the media bashing stakes between Gordon Brown and Gary Glitter.

Now Gordon bestrides the financial world like a colossus - with Europe and America following him. Gordonomics has raised the Nikkei by 14% in one session where Paulson and Bush's interventions brought continued collapse.

In some ways he's been more of a world leader than Blair ever was - and what were the odds on that ever happening ?

It won't last. As far as I can see he wants to solve the crisis by restoring the property overvaluation - in which case we may get another collapse in a few more years. The British economy is still completely knacked - more than ever at this level of government borrowing. Manufacturing shot, education shot, criminal justice shot, culture shot, huge tax-funded ('child poverty') demographic change with all the potential for civil strife that brings.

But he's at least given me a breathing space in which to liquidate a chunk of my shareholdings, fortify the house, dig a cellar and a well and invest in gold, a rotovator, and several thousand tins of beans. Cheers mate !



UPDATE - various commenters have accused me of "following the BBC cheerleading" etc and generally having an incorrect attitude to the worst Chancellor in the worst Government since the Baldwin/Chamberlain years.

Let me put your mind at rest. GB has been, and is, a disaster. If by some tragedy he were to win the next election a grievious thing 'twould be. And his 'reforms' won't solve our problems - maybe not even his problems.

Nonetheless it would be churlish not to acknowledge that in this crisis he IS leading - and is seen by others to be leading. It may just be chance that indices plunged following both the rejection and the acceptance of the Paulson plan, where Gordon's second, nationalising stab at the issue has produced a measure of market recovery. I believe that he's doing more or less what the Swedes did in the early 90s. But ... in the country of the financially blind ...Maybe he's just lucky. So far.

Oops !

via Dogwash :

The Nigerian man told immigration staff he had a place at university in Northern Ireland to study engineering and would live in Dagenham - and produced false papers to back up his claim.

He later admitted he wanted to work illegally after being questioned over the 900-mile, 10-hour round trip by car and ferry he would need to make every day. A source said: "His explanation was laughable. He'd clearly never even looked at a map."

Officials also queried how he could tackle a Masters Degree taught in English when he needed a translator to talk to them.

Alum Rock Update

Nasty.

The slightly built 16-year-old fled in terror as he tried to escape from the 10-strong mob, who slashed him repeatedly across his neck and face when they finally trapped him. The youngster begged for help from passers-by seconds before the savage attack in Alum Rock Road, Alum Rock. Three of the gang, two armed with large machetes and a third with a wooden baton, caught up with the victim and rained down blows during the broad daylight attack at 5pm on Saturday. Eyewitnesses saw the boy being chased from Woodwell Road by a gang of at least 10 youths in their late teens, who hit him indiscriminately as he pleaded for mercy. It was only when shopworkers, neighbours and passers-by closed in on the gang that they fled towards the nearby park.

Interpreter Iftikhar Ahmed, who was cleaning his car when the attack unfolded, said: “The boy was only small and ran up to an old man in the street screaming ‘help me, help me please’. But then one of the gang with a machete leaped over and struck the boy in the head. He fell backwards and stumbled a few steps before falling to the ground. He was lying on the floor when another youth with a machete struck him straight across his forehead. I was rushing forward to help when he was dealt the second blow and I couldn’t believe my eyes. It made my body tremble. Blood was pouring out of him, it was terrible. The machetes were about 18 inches long, they were identical with massive shiny blades.”

Onlookers were surprised by the pack mentality shown by the armed gang.

“The youths attacking him had no fear,” said Mr Ahmed “They didn’t think twice about doing this attack in broad daylight, on a main road with people watching. The boy didn’t stand a chance.”

The victim suffered terrible wounds to his neck, back and face while the mob also came close to slicing off his ear. He was taken to Heartlands Hospital in a serious condition but had today improved to become “stable” and was expected to undergo surgery this afternoon.

Resident Naseem Ahmed, a father-of-two from Alum Rock Road, said: “My wife rushed out to help this poor boy with the woman from Muskaan Tailors Shop, and were wrapping scarves around his wounds to stop them bleeding. His ear was hanging off and there was a large gash down his neck. There was also a big cut across his face and a wound on his back. He could hardly speak. This was a big armed group of teenagers against one person. It was unbelievable. They hunted him down like an animal. There are gangs in Washwood Heath but it has never been on my doorstep before.”

"Help me, please". It does sound like Martin Dinnegan all over again.

A West Midlands Police spokeswoman said: "A number of people were thought to be involved in the attack but details are unclear".

Thank You, Mark

via Blognor Regis, not work or child-friendly, contains profanity and stereotyping (only acceptable stereotyping, though) - but it did make oi larf out loud. The film might be worth a look.



PS - What is it that Clevon shouts in the hospital bed ?

News via Google (again)

Getting hits for "gang attack in monk road, alum rock, birmingham".

And lo and behold ...

Teenager seriously hurt in attack.

A teenager has been seriously injured in an attack in the West Midlands which involved a number of people. Police were called to Alum Rock Road in Birmingham on Saturday at 1710 BST, where they found the 16-year-old. He is thought to have had head injuries. He is in hospital where his condition is described as stable. Police said a number of people were thought to be involved but details were unclear.

The Alum Rock area has featured in police anti-terror raids - to the point where the Birmingham Mail feels the need to report that "People living in Alum Rock today urged others not to feel wary of visiting the Birmingham suburb." It's also where Christian evangelists were threatened with arrest by a PCSO for preaching the Gospel.

Doubtless all will be made clear in time.

"Anger And Offence" - They're All At It

Haaretz.

The Knesset Internal Affairs and Environment Committee will convene today to discuss the difficult events taking place in Acre and the decision of mayor Shimon Lankri to cancel the Fringe Theater Festival, which was scheduled to open in the city during the intermediate days of Sukkot.

Lankri claims the atmosphere of "anger and offense" among residents will not allow the festival to take place. However, committee chair Ophir Pines-Paz is certain the event is an important means of strengthening Acre's image as a cultural center and symbol of coexistence. "Canceling the festival is a prize for violence," Pines-Paz said.

The "difficult events" being the week of rioting since a young Arab man drove through a Jewish neighbourhood during Yom Kippur. Not only that, but with the car stereo on.

It's a good job Christians don't react like that when the Sabbath is profaned. There would be few car windows - or shop windows - unbroken in the country. However, we have our 'neighbourhoods' too. None of them are Christian, mind. It would be foolish to say that it could never happen here. In Brussels a couple of weeks back a vagrant was beaten up for drinking during Ramadan.

Headline of the Week

"Sex-change Rambo arsonist jailed"

What with the gay cannibal chef, Yorkshire's the place for criminal deviance these days.

Chef Anthony Morley, 36, repeatedly stabbed Damian Oldfield and slit his throat before carving off pieces of his leg and chest.

He then seasoned some of the leg meat with herbs, fried it in olive oil and chewed a chunk.

Yes, but what herbs ? Reminds me of the tragic events on the good ship Nancy Bell :

"So he boils the water, and takes the salt
And the pepper in portions true
(Which he never forgot) and some chopped shalot,
And some sage and parsley too.

"'Come here,' says he, with a proper pride,
Which his smiling features tell,
' 'Twill soothing be if I let you see,
How extremely nice you'll smell.'

Yet more criminal deviance - this depressing report from Dewsbury.

The taxi driver has three children. One is safely established in a respectable career, the other two are works in progress. “I don’t mind my kids having the odd drink,” he says. “But getting p***** like the lads I pick up... And the drugs! Muslim kids on drugs! Twenty years ago, if there was one Asian Muslim in Leeds Prison it would’ve been a scandal. Now, it’s full of Asians. It’s like they’ve adopted the worst bits of British culture.”

That's a comforting thought for a Dewsbury taxi driver, but it's not quite true. Criminality wasn't a part of British culture until thirty-odd years back - until around the same time the flow of immigrants from the subcontinent increased. It's not that the newcomers were criminal - on the contrary, they were intensely repectable and law-abiding. The two things were just symptoms of the same cultural collapse. A strong culture would have no use for criminals - and no desire for people to do "the jobs the natives won't do".

Somewhere ...

... in the back of my brain is an old quote (and I can't remember the source) to the effect that "a sound banker is not one who sees disaster coming and takes effective action to save his bank. A sound banker is one who, when disaster strikes, goes bankrupt with all the rest."

Only two or three years ago US and UK banks were declaring record profits - built, as we can now see, on highly optimistic accounting assumptions made when valuing assets and risk.

So what would have happened to a banker with foresight ? A bank head eschewing such practices would have lower profits, a lower share price, and would probably have been sacked. Such a person would probably never have made it that far anyway. You can't be too far out of step with the herd. The thing is to be in front of them - but only just in front of them.

Anyone remember the late Tony "Dr Doom" Dye ? His shade must be enjoying this.

" stock markets continued to soar, driven by the technology boom. But Dye stuck to his guns, avoiding the high-growth, high-risk internet stocks, maintaining large positions in cash, and consequently ensuring that Phillips & Drew's funds significantly underperformed their rivals. By 1999, the firm was ranked 66th out of 67 for performance amongst Britain's institutional fund managers, and was haemorrhaging clients – and in February the following year, just weeks after the FTSE had broken through 7,000 points for the first time, Dye was sacked.

Days later, his prophesy finally came true. Markets collapsed, and settled into a three year slump, which saw more than 50 per cent wiped off the value of global stock markets."

He was right - but he was sacked. He was just right a bit too early.

Although his last years at P&D were mired in controversy, Dye's predictions of a market crash nearly came true much sooner – as first the Asian tigers crisis in 1997, and then the collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund in 1998, rocked the world's markets. But on both occasions, central banks slashed interest rates and delayed the inevitable, leaving Dye to wait until 2000 for his vindication.

After leaving P&D, Dye continued to court controversy. Towards the end of 2002, he wrote a letter to the Financial Times predicting an imminent housing crash in the UK, on a similar scale to the house-price slump of the early 1990s. He predicted that at least 30 per cent would be wiped off the value of the average residential property – a prophecy that he never saw come to pass. However, he may yet be proved right on that one too.

Gullible Judge or Cynical Judge ?

Telegraph :

A 77-year-old pensioner caught with £1,300 of cocaine in her handbag has escaped jail after telling a judge she used it to treat pneumonia. Betty Nicholls said she had been given the drug by a stranger who told her 'it will give you a lift'. The widow, from Bude, north Cornwall, who stands just five foot tall and weighs less than six stone, said she thought the drug was cannabis. Nicholls, of Bude, Cornwall, admitted possessing 27.4 grams of cocaine with a street value of £1,370 when she appeared at Exeter Magistrates Court. She was made subject of a 60 day curfew order and will have to stay indoors at night and wear an electronic tag. She was also told to pay £60 costs.

I suppose the prisons are full. Surely they didn't believe her. Did they ?

District Judge Paul Farmer told her: "The circumstances are unusual, to say the least. You know what is right or wrong. I give you credit for pleading guilty and for being a person of mature years who has never been before a court before in their life.

"It is unusual for somebody to give a stranger 27.4 grams of class A drugs."

It certainly is. But it's not at all unusual for somebody caught with class A drugs to lie through their teeth.