Monday, December 14, 2009

The Scots Are Bastards Too (it's not just the Welsh)

Oh, alright - it will actually take some time before the majority of Scots are born outside wedlock, just as it will for the Welsh. But their 2008 births have hit that magic 50% total.

The latest ONS Population Trends stats (pdf) are out. Links to the 'historic' data as far back as 1997 are here.

Headline figure is that :

There were 170,834 births in England and Wales in 2008 to mothers born outside the United Kingdom, accounting for 24 per cent of all live births in England and Wales. This is the highest proportion since the collection of the parents’ country of birth at birth registration was introduced in 1969. The proportion of births to foreign-born women has increased every year since 1990 when it was just under 12 per cent, with a marked rise over the last decade: the proportion of births to mothers born outside the United Kingdom was 14 per cent in 1998 (Figure 7).
The replacement of the English continues apace. Table 1, page 88. 25% of births in England, 10% in Wales, 13% in Scotland - higher than I'd have expected - and 12% in NI.

In 1981, the Census showed that just over six per cent of the UK population had been born abroad. By 2001, this had risen to over eight per cent, and in 2008 people born abroad represented about 11 per cent (6.7 million) of the total UK population (see Figure 3A).
Add the 25% of babies born in England to foreign-born mothers, consider that in 2008 23.3% of English primary schoolkids were 'ethnic minority' - these demographic changes represent transformation on a massive scale.

The bastardy and childlessness figures are interesting. An overwhelming majority of births to the under-24s are outside marriage (fig 5 p88), and while the number of babies born within marriage is increasing, the number outside is increasing faster (fig 4). The Scots have at last caught up with the Welsh, with 50% of births outside marriage, while Wales accelerates into the distance with 56%. England, at 45% is third while NI trails at 39%.

And in Fig 3 p86 you can see the doubling in the number of childless women since the 70s. Be interesting to compare that rising graph against the number of women going into higher education.

Trends in true birth order (see Background Note 3) show that childlessness among women aged 45 has almost doubled over the last two decades.

To see exactly who is having the babies, Pop Trends 137 (Autumn) is probably more useful, as it shows births and fertility by local authority area.

• The highest fertility level among the Government Office Regions of England in 2008, as represented by the TFR, was in the West Midlands where there was an average of 2.09 children per woman. The lowest was in the North East with 1.86. See Explanatory Note 8

• The highest level of fertility among the Government Office Regions of England in 2008, as represented by the GFR, was in London with 69.4 live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, followed by the West Midlands (66.4). The lowest GFR was in the North East (58.7)

• The London borough of Newham recorded the highest GFR among local authorities in England with 96.5 live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44. The London borough of Barking and Dagenham and the unitary authority of Slough share the second highest GFR of 94.0. The lowest GFR was in Durham county district (39.4)

• Of the local authorities in England, Boston had the highest TFR of 2.81 children per woman, followed by Barking and Dagenham (2.80). The lowest TFR was in Westminster (1.21), followed by Camden (1.26)
I haven't got Excel out on these figures yet, but I'd imagine the scene looks very much as it did in 2006.

A quick Excel sort gives us the following top ten local authorities, ignoring Rutland, where a woman having quads seems to have distorted the figures.

Blackburn with Darwen
Barking and Dagenham

Merry Christmas - and God bless us, every one.