Wednesday, October 05, 2005

The Tories

I haven't had time to post on the Tory leadership shenanigans, though I see a Chris Dillow report that the great Aaronovitch has come out in favour of David Davis.

Mr Davis, for all his weekend warnings to the almost non-existent Religious Right, is a hanger, has voted against ending discrimination against gay people and has admitted that, though the father of three, he never changed a nappy. Individually these preferences would be only mildly disturbing. Together they almost amount to a persona.

Sounds like a good bloke to me.

Dumb Jon says most of what I'd have wanted to say, in a piece so good it could have come from Mark Steyn.

But there's one other factor the Tories need to think about. I don't expect to see a public debate of even a fringe meeting discussing it. You can only talk in code about 'do we look like modern Britain ?'

Approximately 10% of the "ethnic minority" vote goes to the Tories.

That fact alone accounts for most of the 2% vote share gap between Labour and the Conservatives.

It also accounts for their disappearance from urban constituencies in England.

Around 25-30% of babies born in England are born to ethnic minorities or recent immigrants.

So on current trends the Tories will have even fewer votes in the future, as their voters die and are replaced on the roll by young Africans, Bangladeshis, Indians, Poles.

There are therefore three choices open to the Tories.

a) embrace multiculturalism in a half-hearted fashion as done currently, with the conspicuous success described above, in the hope that the wheels will come off Gordon Brown's bus in spectacular fashion.

b) embrace it and really mean it - go beyond Teresa May's wildest dreams. Major on self-help and education (thank you Hindu voters) and family values (add the Muslim vote). Problems ? Most competent potential Indian/Hindu leaders are too busy making money to bother with politics, Muslim leaders care about politics, but it's intimately linked with religion. The other great risk is that you'll shed party members like autumn leaves, some of whom, perfectly decent people, will find a home in the BNP.

c) accept the fact that these votes are unattainable and all that springs therefrom. Become the political voice of the Native Brits, grab what remains of the white working class vote, campaign strongly against further immmigration while retaining a strictly One Nation approach (i.e. no discrimination of any kind, judging on content of character rather than skin colour etc) to those immigrants already here and their descendants. Risk - a sad farewell to the Letwins and Camerons of this world. Plus no prospect of power for the foreseeable. On the plus side, the BNP will wither away like the State in an ideal Socialist society.

None of these look terribly palatable choices. But major demographic change is already with us. Its first political fruits were seen in Bethnal Green earlier this year. There'll be more - I imagine rather a lot more.

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